Türkiye’s “Neutrality” Soon Ends
Ankara’s strategic balancing act is coming to an end, but can it achieve regional dominance before the cash and support runs out? Will the President risk conflict to forestall collapse?
Latest
Walwal to the World: Ethiopia, Empire, Abandoned Principles
How Italy’s strategic ambitions led to an end to the League of Nations and paved the way for World War II, the Cold War, and, indeed, the world of the 2020s.
How Will Iran Adapt Now?
Where does Iran go from here? How is the global balance changed — and it is being changed — by the emerging collapse of the Iranian theocratic, revolutionary Govern ment?
Early Warning: The Imperial Drumbeat Quickens
Imperial conquest is returning to the world in a new form, just as we have digested the earlier ages of imperial conquests.
The US National Security Strategy: What Does it Actually Mean?
The Trump Doctrine will attract dismissal, but it is highly informative and important.
Civilizational Collapse as Reality
The November 2025 publication of the United States' National Security Strategy was widely seen by critics as proof of a clear and explicit divergence between the United States and Europe.
Universal Unrest and its Meaning
The crowds are in the streets, everywhere, and in different forms, showing signs of fatigue, anger, despair, and more. How does this impact policymaking, economics, and defense decision-making? And how can we think about, and cope, with this phenomenon?
Guinea-Bissau’s Instability Returns
Guinea-Bissau’s November 2025 coup continues the trend away from Western-influenced practices and toward a resumption of the time when Africa’s future is shaped by Africa.
CURRENT ESTIMATE | Has Trump Transformed, or Ended, the Anglophone Group?
United States President Donald Trump, during the first year of his second presidency, severely shook strategic relationships with the US’ key historical allies in the Anglosphere, the traditionally English-speaking societies of the world.
Key Transitions and Defense and Intelligence Appointments - 09/2025
ESSENTIAL READING | The Outrageous and Innovative General Orde Wingate
Fire in the Night, by British journalists John Bierman and Colin Smith, examines the huge impact of a unique British officer, Major General Orde Wingate, who died in Burma in 1944 during World War II.
ESSENTIAL READING | The Battle to Live “Like Free People”
Historian Benjamin Nathans of the University of Pennsylvania lifts his new book’s title from the traditional vodka toast of Soviet dissidents: to the “success of our hopeless cause”.
Strategy
EN CLAIR | Two US Deaths of Strategic Significance
The US lost two key figures of significant political and strategic influence in recent months - Edward Fuelner and Charles Kirk.
Military
EN CLAIR | Can the US Avoid Escalating Against Venezuela?
The US Government seemed likely, by mid-September 2025, to escalate military and political pressure to curb Venezuela’s central role in narcotics trafficking to the US and, if possible, to cause the collapse of the Venezuelan Government of President Nicolás Maduro.
History
The Limits of Long-Range Planning
Plans of attack rarely survive the first shot. Flexibility, guided by strategic principles, is key.
Politics
Crowds versus Power
The globalist-nationalist confrontation has intensified to the point where crowds angrily demand change. Is the cycle predictable? How do today’s crowds discharge their energy?
Politics
The Opaque New Phase of the Red Sea Competition
Washington had, by late August 2025, finally begun to focus on the strategic importance of the Red Sea-Suez sea lane and the essential element of control of the littorals which dominate the trade passage. But it is late in joining the party.
Strategy
Turkey, Unabashed, Wants a Share of the EU’s Defense Spending
Despite its closeness with Russia, Türkiye is attempting to access European defense funds.
Military
Anger and Terror in the Turkish Armed Forces
President Erdogan’s new measures are leading to the politicization of the Turkish Armed Forces in order to control it to the fullest extent.
Strategy
Civilization and Culture: The Strategic Foundation of Everything
We have become obsessed with the belief that technology, not people, wins wars and dominates economies. But destroying cultures and civilizations is what weakens societies.
Strategy
Australia’s Strategic Decline: Is it Terminal?
Australia’s strategic decline has been underway for years, and is worsening. What now?
Politics
STRATEGIC TRAJECTORIES | Nepal Emerges as a Pivotal Point in PRC Insurrection Process
Opposition inside the PRC noted not only the Nepal example, but also the protests which recently toppled the governments of Syria and Bangladesh. Beijing will note the Nepali example as a threat to the PRC’s internal security situation in occupied Tibet, which Beijing has been at pains to contain.
Philosophy
EARLY WARNING | Pursuing the Wisdom of Endless Questioning
Cynicism and apathy — often products of older age — can be as dangerous as the smugness and ignorance of youth in shaping national policy.